UFC

Yan vs Dvalishvili prediction: one win each, and the bantamweight title on the line again

Petr Yan defends the bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in their trilogy at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi on 24 October. Records, the first two fights, styles and our pick.

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili, UFC 333 bantamweight title poster
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Petr Yan defends the UFC bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the co-main event of UFC 333 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. It’s the third fight between them and the second in a row with the belt at stake. Dvalishvili won the first in 2023, Yan took the title from him last December, and UFC has them on right before Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev. The main card starts at 21:00 Riga time.

UFC 333 Countdown: Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili ahead of their third fight. Watch more on UFC’s YouTube.

Tale of the tape

Petr YanMerab Dvalishvili
Record20-5-021-5-0
Age on fight night3335
Height171 cm (5’7.5″)168 cm (5’6″)
Reach170 cm (67″)173 cm (68″)
StanceSwitchOrthodox
DivisionBantamweight (champion)Bantamweight (No. 1 contender)
Head to head1-11-1

Petr Yan: two-time champion, four wins in a row

Yan takes the bantamweight title from Dvalishvili by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47) at UFC 323 in Las Vegas, 6 December 2025. Watch more on UFC’s YouTube.

Yan’s career had a long flat stretch in the middle. He lost the title to Aljamain Sterling by disqualification in 2021, then dropped a split decision to Sterling in the rematch, another to Sean O’Malley, and then a clear decision to Dvalishvili in March 2023. Four losses in five fights, and three of them close or contested.

Since then he hasn’t lost. He beat Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo and Marcus McGhee, then outworked Dvalishvili over five rounds in December to win the belt back. UFC.com noted that made him only the third man to win the UFC bantamweight title twice, after Dominick Cruz and TJ Dillashaw.

Recent form:

  • 6 Dec 2025, UFC 323: beat Merab Dvalishvili, unanimous decision (5 rounds)
  • 26 Jul 2025, UFC on ABC 9: beat Marcus McGhee, unanimous decision
  • 23 Nov 2024, UFC Fight Night 248: beat Deiveson Figueiredo, unanimous decision (5 rounds)
  • 9 Mar 2024, UFC 299: beat Song Yadong, unanimous decision
  • 11 Mar 2023, UFC Fight Night 221: lost to Merab Dvalishvili, unanimous decision (5 rounds)

Merab Dvalishvili: the busiest champion in the sport, until December

Dvalishvili submits Sean O’Malley with a north-south choke at 4:42 of round three at UFC 316, 7 June 2025. Watch more on UFC’s YouTube.

Dvalishvili’s 2025 was remarkable. He defended the title against Umar Nurmagomedov in January, submitted O’Malley in June and beat Cory Sandhagen in October. Then he took the Yan rematch in December, his fourth title fight of the year. The loss ended a 14-fight winning streak.

UFC’s own preview of this fight says he looked deflated that night and has admitted as much since. He’s had ten months off to recover.

Recent form:

  • 6 Dec 2025, UFC 323: lost to Petr Yan, unanimous decision (5 rounds)
  • 4 Oct 2025, UFC 320: beat Cory Sandhagen, unanimous decision (5 rounds)
  • 7 Jun 2025, UFC 316: beat Sean O’Malley, submission (north-south choke), round 3, 4:42
  • 18 Jan 2025, UFC 311: beat Umar Nurmagomedov, unanimous decision (5 rounds)
  • 14 Sep 2024, UFC 306: beat Sean O’Malley, unanimous decision (5 rounds), won the title

The first two fights

The two fights could hardly have been more different. In March 2023, Dvalishvili kept Yan on the back foot for 25 minutes. UFC.com counts 11 takedowns on 49 attempts for him that night. Sherdog’s breakdown showed how he did it: low kicks to Yan’s lead leg in orthodox pushed Yan into southpaw and took away his stance switching. Yan later put the loss down to injuries.

In December, Yan came forward from the start. Dvalishvili won the first round on all three cards and then lost every round after it on two of them. He landed 2 of 29 takedown attempts. Yan landed 60% of his significant strikes, hurt him to the body several times and took him down five times himself.

Styles and key factors

UFC Stats shows the shape of it. Yan lands 5.16 significant strikes a minute at 54% and stops 86% of takedowns. Dvalishvili lands 4.42 at 41% but averages 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes. He wins by volume and attempts, and he doesn’t slow down.

Key factors:

  • Takedown defence. Yan stuffed 27 of 29 shots last time. If that number holds, Dvalishvili has nothing else that wins five rounds.
  • The legs. Dvalishvili’s low kicks took Yan’s stance away in 2023. Watch whether he goes back to them early.
  • Freshness. Dvalishvili fought four times in 2025. This time both men had the same ten months.
  • Body work. Yan’s shots to the body slowed the most durable pace in the division. Dvalishvili needs an answer to it.

Our pick: Yan by decision

We’re taking Yan by unanimous decision. He solved the problem in December, and the solution (pressure, body shots, good hips) doesn’t depend on Dvalishvili having a bad night. A fresher Dvalishvili will make it closer and will probably take the early rounds again. But he needs takedowns to win rounds against Yan, and Yan has shown he can stop them.

Where to watch Yan vs Dvalishvili UFC LIVE Stream

UFC 333 is on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. Start times from UFC.com:

ETGMTRiga
Early prelims10:0014:0017:00
Prelims12:0016:0019:00
Main card14:0018:0021:00

Yan vs Dvalishvili is the co-main event, the second-to-last fight of the night. UK clocks are still on BST that weekend, so the main card starts at 19:00 UK time.

How to watch: UFC Fight Pass, UFC’s official streaming service, which UFC.com links for UFC 333. In Latvia, UFC events are on Go3 (Go3 Sport channels, Sports plan). In the US the card streams on Paramount+, and in the UK and Ireland UFC is on TNT Sports. UFC’s how-to-watch guide doesn’t list Latvia or the other Baltic states.

Questions

When is Yan vs Dvalishvili 3?

Saturday, 24 October 2026. It's the co-main event of UFC 333. The main card starts at 14:00 ET, 18:00 GMT and 21:00 Riga time.

Where is the fight?

Etihad Arena on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Is it a title fight?

Yes. Yan defends the UFC bantamweight title over five rounds.

Who won the first two fights?

Dvalishvili won the first by unanimous decision in March 2023. Yan won the rematch by unanimous decision in December 2025 and took the title.

What are their records?

Yan is 20-5 and Dvalishvili is 21-5.

How can I watch UFC 333 in Latvia?

UFC events in Latvia are on Go3 (Go3 Sport channels). UFC's official streaming service is UFC Fight Pass.

Who wins Yan vs Dvalishvili?

We're picking Yan by unanimous decision.