UFC

Volkanovski vs Evloev prediction: can 20-0 crack the greatest featherweight of the era?

Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight title against unbeaten Movsar Evloev at UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi on 24 October. Tale of the tape, form, styles and our pick.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev, UFC 333 featherweight title poster
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Alexander Volkanovski defends the UFC featherweight title against unbeaten Movsar Evloev on Saturday 24 October 2026, in the main event of UFC 333 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. It’s a five-round title fight between the No. 2 fighter in UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings and the division’s No. 1 contender. The main card starts at 21:00 Riga time, with Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight title as the co-main event.

UFC 333 Countdown: the build-up to Volkanovski vs Evloev. Watch more on UFC’s YouTube.

Tale of the tape

Alexander VolkanovskiMovsar Evloev
Record28-4-020-0-0
Age on fight night3832
Height168 cm (5’6″)170 cm (5’7″)
Reach182 cm (71.5″)184 cm (72.5″)
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
DivisionFeatherweight (champion)Featherweight (No. 1 contender)
UFC record15-310-0
Trains atFreestyle Fighting GymAmerican Top Team

Alexander Volkanovski: back on top at 38

Volkanovski beats Diego Lopes for the second time, by unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45), to keep the featherweight title at UFC 325 in Sydney, 31 January 2026. Watch more on UFC’s YouTube.

A couple of years ago this looked like the end of the line. Volkanovski lost three of four fights between February 2023 and February 2024: two lightweight title fights against Islam Makhachev, the second a first-round knockout, and then the featherweight belt to Ilia Topuria, knocked out in the second round in Anaheim.

He came back anyway. In April 2025 he beat Diego Lopes by unanimous decision at UFC 314 in Miami to become a two-time featherweight champion, and in January he did it again in front of a home crowd in Sydney, winning a second straight decision over Lopes that earned Fight of the Night. That was his eighth win in a UFC featherweight title fight, tying José Aldo’s divisional record, and a win on Saturday would give him the record outright.

Recent form:

  • 31 Jan 2026, UFC 325: beat Diego Lopes, unanimous decision (5 rounds)
  • 12 Apr 2025, UFC 314: beat Diego Lopes, unanimous decision (5 rounds)
  • 17 Feb 2024, UFC 298: lost to Ilia Topuria, KO (punch), round 2, 3:32
  • 21 Oct 2023, UFC 294: lost to Islam Makhachev, KO (head kick and punches), round 1, 3:06
  • 8 Jul 2023, UFC 290: beat Yair Rodriguez, TKO (punches), round 3, 4:19

Movsar Evloev: 20 fights, 20 wins, no finishes in the UFC

Evloev edges Lerone Murphy by majority decision (48-46, 48-46, 47-47) at The O2 in London, 21 March 2026, his 20th straight win. Watch more on UFC’s YouTube.

Evloev has never lost as a professional. He’s 20-0, 10-0 in the UFC, and every one of those ten UFC wins went to the judges. That’s both the case for him and the case against him. He beats good fighters (Diego Lopes, Arnold Allen, Aljamain Sterling, Dan Ige), but he rarely puts them away.

His last fight was the closest of the run. Lerone Murphy outboxed him over the first two rounds in London in March. Evloev took over from the third, landed 9 of 10 takedowns over the last three rounds, and won a majority decision even though he lost a point in the fourth for a second low kick. One judge had it a draw.

Recent form:

  • 21 Mar 2026, UFC Fight Night 270: beat Lerone Murphy, majority decision (5 rounds)
  • 7 Dec 2024, UFC 310: beat Aljamain Sterling, unanimous decision
  • 20 Jan 2024, UFC 297: beat Arnold Allen, unanimous decision
  • 6 May 2023, UFC 288: beat Diego Lopes, unanimous decision
  • 4 Jun 2022, UFC Fight Night 207: beat Dan Ige, unanimous decision

Styles: the striker with the better numbers against the wrestler who never stops

On paper this is Volkanovski’s volume against Evloev’s wrestling. UFC Stats has Volkanovski landing 5.99 significant strikes a minute at 57% accuracy, against 3.91 at 47% for Evloev. Evloev averages 4.78 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52% accuracy. Volkanovski stops 68% of takedown attempts against him.

Volkanovski is the more complete fighter. He works behind feints and footwork, mixes leg kicks into his combinations and has the wrestling base to scramble back up, which he showed again against Lopes. Evloev is better on the feet than he gets credit for, but the Murphy fight showed what happens when he stays there too long against a sharp counter-puncher: he loses rounds.

The common opponent helps a bit. Evloev beat Lopes over three rounds in 2023. Volkanovski beat a better version of Lopes twice over five.

Key factors:

  • The first takedown attempts. If Evloev can take Volkanovski down early and hold him there, the scorecards change fast.
  • Five rounds. Volkanovski has gone 25 minutes many times. Evloev’s only five-round fight in the UFC was the Murphy win.
  • Age. Volkanovski is 38 and was knocked out twice in 2023-24. Evloev doesn’t hit like Topuria or Makhachev, but the question is fair.
  • Discipline. Evloev was docked a point for low kicks last time. Another deduction in a close title fight could decide it.

What’s at stake

For Volkanovski, the record. A win would be his ninth UFC featherweight title-fight win, one more than José Aldo, and would hand Evloev the first loss of his career. For Evloev, it’s the belt and the argument that the man who wins every round on points is a champion, not just a contender. UFC’s own preview says the result will decide where the division goes in 2027.

Our pick: Volkanovski by decision

This is close. We’re going with Volkanovski by unanimous decision. Evloev has to win rounds rather than end the fight, and Volkanovski has been winning five-round title fights for most of a decade. He should take the striking exchanges the way Murphy did and, unlike Murphy, he has the wrestling to make the second half competitive rather than a takedown clinic. If Evloev lands his takedowns early and keeps landing them, we’re wrong.

Where to watch Volkanovski vs Evloev UFC LIVE Stream

UFC 333 is on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi. Start times from UFC.com:

ETGMTRiga
Early prelims10:0014:0017:00
Prelims12:0016:0019:00
Main card14:0018:0021:00

UK clocks are still on BST that weekend, so the main card starts at 19:00 UK time. Volkanovski vs Evloev is the last fight of the night, so expect it well after the 21:00 Riga start.

How to watch: UFC Fight Pass, UFC’s official streaming service, which UFC.com links for UFC 333. In Latvia, UFC events are on Go3 (Go3 Sport channels, Sports plan). In the US the card streams on Paramount+, and in the UK and Ireland UFC is on TNT Sports. UFC’s how-to-watch guide doesn’t list Latvia or the other Baltic states.

Questions

When is Volkanovski vs Evloev?

Saturday, 24 October 2026. The UFC 333 main card starts at 14:00 ET, 18:00 GMT and 21:00 Riga time, and this is the main event.

Where is the fight?

Etihad Arena on Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Is it a title fight?

Yes. Volkanovski defends the UFC featherweight title over five rounds.

What are their records?

Volkanovski is 28-4 (15-3 in the UFC). Evloev is 20-0 (10-0 in the UFC).

Have they fought before?

No. Their only common opponent is Diego Lopes: Evloev beat him in 2023, Volkanovski beat him in 2025 and 2026.

How can I watch UFC 333 in Latvia?

UFC events in Latvia are on Go3 (Go3 Sport channels). UFC's official streaming service is UFC Fight Pass.

Who wins Volkanovski vs Evloev?

We're picking Volkanovski by unanimous decision.