UFC

Moicano vs Nolan prediction: UFC Vegas lightweight preview and how to watch

Renato Moicano meets rising Australian Tom Nolan in the UFC Vegas main event on 31 October. Records, form, styles, watch times (ET/GMT/Riga) and our pick.

Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan, UFC Fight Night lightweight main event fight preview
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Voting closes Sun 1 Nov, 01:00 Riga (Sat 31 Oct, 16:00 local)

Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline the UFC Fight Night card at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, 31 October. It’s a five-round lightweight main event between the No. 12 and No. 14 men in the division. Moicano is 37, a former title challenger and one of the best back-takers at 155 lb. Nolan is 26, 6’3″ and has won five in a row since his UFC debut went wrong. The UFC main card starts at 02:00 Riga time on Sunday morning.

Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan face to face in profile, UFC event art for the 31 October main event

Tale of the tape

Renato MoicanoTom Nolan
Record21-7-111-1
RankingNo. 12 lightweightNo. 14 lightweight
Age3726
Height5’11” (180 cm)6’3″ (191 cm)
Reach72″ (183 cm)73″ (185 cm)
StanceOrthodoxSouthpaw
Wins by KO / sub / dec2 / 11 / 85 / 1 / 5
TeamAmerican Top TeamTeam Compton Training Centre
FromBrasília, BrazilAustralia
Last fightW sub R2 Chris Duncan, 04.04.2026W UD Farès Ziam, 06.06.2026

Records, rankings, ages, height, reach and teams: UFC.com athlete pages. Stance: ESPN.

Renato Moicano: the choke is always coming

Moicano’s numbers tell you how he wins. Eleven of his 21 victories are submissions, and UFC.com lists every one of them as a rear-naked choke. He doesn’t need a takedown to get there either. He waits for a scramble or a lazy exchange, gets to the back and stays there.

He’s also been around the top of the division for a long time. In January 2025 he took a lightweight title shot against Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 on a day’s notice, after Arman Tsarukyan pulled out, and was submitted in the first round. He then lost a decision to Beneil Dariush in June 2025 before getting back on track in April, submitting Chris Duncan in the second round of a main event.

Recent form (UFC.com):

  • W sub R2 (3:14) Chris Duncan, UFC Fight Night, 04.04.2026
  • L UD Beneil Dariush, UFC 317, 28.06.2025
  • L sub R1 (4:05) Islam Makhachev, UFC 311, 18.01.2025 (lightweight title)
  • W TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 Benoît Saint Denis, UFC Fight Night, 28.09.2024
  • W TKO R2 (4:11) Jalin Turner, UFC 300, 13.04.2024

Tom Nolan: five straight since a rough debut

Nolan’s UFC story started badly. He came through Dana White’s Contender Series with a first-round knockout of Bogdan Grad in 2023, then got stopped by Nikolas Motta in 63 seconds on his debut in January 2024. He hasn’t lost since. Victor Martinez, Alex Reyes, Viacheslav Borshchev, Charlie Campbell and Farès Ziam have all come and gone.

The Ziam win matters most here. Ziam is a tall, patient striker and Nolan beat him over three rounds in June, which got him into the rankings and into this main event. He’s a big lightweight, he’s a southpaw and five of his eleven wins are knockouts. The Campbell fight showed he can finish on the mat too, with a first-round rear-naked choke that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.

Nolan’s first-round submission of Charlie Campbell at UFC Perth in 2025. Video: UFC / X

Recent form (UFC.com):

  • W UD Farès Ziam, UFC Fight Night, 06.06.2026
  • W sub R1 (4:08) Charlie Campbell, UFC Fight Night (Perth), 27.09.2025
  • W UD Viacheslav Borshchev, UFC 312, 08.02.2025
  • W UD Alex Reyes, UFC 305, 17.08.2024
  • W TKO R1 (3:50) Victor Martinez, UFC Fight Night, 18.05.2024

Styles: how Moicano vs Nolan plays out

This is length against craft. Nolan is four inches taller and will want the fight at the end of his straight left. Moicano’s best route is to close the distance, draw a scramble and find the back. He’s not a big knockout threat (two KO wins in 29 fights), so he has to make it a grappling fight sooner or later.

Nolan’s jab and left hand from the southpaw stance could be a real problem for an orthodox fighter who walks forward. The danger for him is the clinch and the cage. If he lets Moicano hang on to him, he gives the Brazilian exactly what he wants.

Five rounds also changes things. Nolan has never had a five-round fight in the UFC. Moicano has headlined UFC cards before, and back-takers usually get more chances as opponents tire and get sloppy in scrambles.

Key factors

  • Distance. Every round Nolan spends at range is a round banked for him.
  • Back exposure. One loose scramble against Moicano can end the night.
  • Age and activity. Moicano is 37 and has fought once since June 2025.
  • Rounds four and five. New territory for Nolan.

Our pick: Nolan by decision

Moicano is the more complete fighter on the ground and has the experience in long fights. But Nolan’s size, reach and southpaw left hand should let him win most of the minutes on the feet, and he’s only been finished once, back on his debut. We expect Moicano to have his moments in scrambles and Nolan to keep getting back up and back to range. Pick: Nolan by decision. A Moicano choke in the later rounds is the upset to watch for.

Also on the card: Yana Santos vs Luana Santos

The women’s bantamweight fight between No. 6 Yana Santos (17-8) and No. 7 Luana Santos (11-2) is a proper ranked fight on the main card. It’s an experienced veteran against a younger Brazilian on the way up. Luana Santos has the better record, while Yana Santos has nearly twice as many pro fights (25 to 13). Pick: Luana Santos by decision. The rest of the UFC Fight Night main card is Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith, Ode’ Osbourne vs Cody Durden and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov.

Where to watch Moicano vs Nolan LIVE Stream

  • Date: Saturday, 31 October 2026
  • Venue: Meta APEX, Las Vegas
  • Prelims: 17:00 ET = 21:00 GMT / 23:00 Riga (Saturday) (UFC.com)
  • Main card: 20:00 ET = 00:00 GMT / 02:00 Riga (Sunday, 1 November) (UFC.com)
  • Moicano vs Nolan walkouts: not announced. As the last fight, expect them roughly two to three hours after the main card starts, depending on how fast the fights go.

Clock note: the UK and Latvia moved their clocks back on 25 October, so on fight night the UK is on GMT and Riga is UTC+2. The US doesn’t change until 1 November, after the event, so ET is still EDT (UTC-4).

How to watch: In the US the card is on Paramount+, which UFC.com lists for the prelims and main card. In Latvia, UFC events are on Go3 (Go3 Sport channels). UFC Fight Pass is UFC’s own streaming service.

Questions

When is Moicano vs Nolan?

Saturday, 31 October 2026. The main card starts at 20:00 ET (00:00 GMT / 02:00 Riga on Sunday) and the prelims at 17:00 ET (21:00 GMT / 23:00 Riga).

Where is the fight?

The Meta APEX in Las Vegas.

How many rounds is Moicano vs Nolan?

Five rounds, as it's the main event.

What are their records?

Moicano is 21-7-1. Nolan is 11-1 and on a five-fight winning streak.

How can I watch Moicano vs Nolan?

In the US it's on Paramount+, which UFC.com lists for the event. In Latvia UFC events are on Go3, and UFC Fight Pass is UFC's own streaming service.

Who wins Moicano vs Nolan?

Our pick is Nolan by decision.

Has Moicano fought for a UFC title?

Yes. He replaced Arman Tsarukyan on a day's notice and fought Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title at UFC 311 in January 2025, losing by first-round submission.